Perez, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

400
FXUS66 KMFR 062111
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
211 PM PDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.DISCUSSION...Thicker cumulus has been settling in and showers
have been moving in today along a cold front. These showers will
continue moving north- northeastward through the rest of the
afternoon. Since it was a warmer morning due to extra cloud cover,
highs will still be above normal later this afternoon. Highs will
be a few degrees above normal west of the Cascades, but with the
rain focusing on areas near and west of the Cascades east side
will see highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal in the 60s and 70s!
Since 2 AM, current totals are looking to be around a quarter of
an inch to a third of an inch for areas near Roseburg west and
slightly over a third of an inch in Curry County.

Between 5 PM and 11 PM today, the probability to see 0.75" in the
coastal mountains is ~70% and for west side valleys, there is a 50-
70% probability to see 0.25" of rain. Forecast CAPEs with HREF are
showing 100-200 J/kg for tomorrow afternoon along the coast and in
northwestern Douglas County. Forecast soundings also support the
same scenario, so have worked on adding a slight chance to this area
for the afternoon. There will also be a concern for stronger winds
with forecast 700 mb winds east of the Cascades nearing 40-50 kts.
With that, ridges will have stronger southerly/southwesterly flow
tonight and continuing into tomorrow.

Snow levels are still falling to 5,500-6,500 feet tomorrow
morning, but overall snow will be a lower concern for the
Cascades. Between Monday morning and Monday evening elevations
above 6,000 feet could see between 5 to 8 inches, but overall
totals for the Cascades will be 1 to 4 inches otherwise.

Showers will continue Tuesday mainly for areas north of the Umpqua
Divide, in the coastal mountains and in the Cascades. The upper
trough will move inland and weaken as it does so, and this will
bring some drier air back starting Wednesday morning. Currently the
next front will arrive Thursday, and there is more agreement that
the precipitation will begin at the coast Thursday afternoon.
Overall, this is looking to bring lighter impacts other than
cloudier skies and some showers. This system will likely impact
areas similar to the showers we`ll see Tuesday, near and east of the
Cascades.

Getting farther in the long term into the middle of April, there is
a trough that comes in and the Euro is tracking it farther north,
bringing lesser impacts to our area compared to the GFS who brings
it closer to us with more rain. Right now ~60% of the ensembles show
ridging in the PNW with the other 40% troughing by mid-April, so we
will analyze this as we get closer. -Hermansen

&&

.AVIATION...06/18Z TAFs...VFR conditions generally prevail across
the region, though MVFR ceilings are developing along the coast as
waves of precipitation move onshore and spread inland. MVFR
conditions will hold off for inland sites until late this afternoon
and evening, with terrain obscurations developing before then. The
main front will push through the region late this afternoon and
overnight, but gusty winds are expected along the coast, east of the
Cascades and in the Shasta Valley this afternoon and evening.
Precipitation spreads east of the Cascades late tonight and freezing
levels will remain at or above 5000 ft. /BR-y

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM Sunday, April 6th...Multiple fronts will
pass through the region through mid-week, maintaining gusty south to
southwest winds. Moderate long period swell (10-13 ft @ 15 to 18
seconds) will build across the waters today, with seas peaking this
afternoon around 13-14 ft. Persistent west to southwest swell,
combined with periods of increased wind waves, will maintain steep
seas and advisory level conditions through at least mid-week.
Conditions improve late in the week, but additional fronts are
expected next weekend and could bring another round of hazardous
conditions. /BR-y

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 PM Sunday, April 6th...A moderate
long period swell is building into the waters today, resulting in a
moderate risk of sneaker waves through this afternoon. Sneaker waves
can run up significantly farther on beaches than normal, including
over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly knock people off of
their feet and quickly pull them into the cold ocean waters,
resulting in serious injury or death. Waves may also lift driftwood
logs, trapping anyone caught underneath. Keep a safe distance from
the ocean during this time, and remember to NEVER turn your back on
the ocean.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for ORZ021-
     022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$